AFC:
1) New England Patriots (8-1)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-1)
3) Denver Broncos (14-1)
4) Indianapolis Colts (20-1)
5) Cincinnati Bengals (14-1)
6) Kansas City Chiefs (20-1)
NFC:
1) Seattle Seahawks (8-1)
2) Green Bay Packers (10-1)
3) Carolina Panthers (10-1)
4) Dallas Cowboys (16-1)
5) Arizona Cardinals (10-1)
6) Minnesota Vikings (20-1)
Who wins? I say Carolina loses their second in a row, this time to Pittsburgh.

The Texans, Cardinals, Jets, Jaguars, Saints, and the Buccaneers have never had an MVP winner. Just 3 years ago the Chiefs and Ravens were on the list, but Mahomes and Lamar put an end to that
Last time each team had a viable candidate
Texans: Obviously JJ Watt is the best case here. He had a historic 2014 season, with over 20 Sacks, 29 Tackles for Loss and 4 forced fumbles, along with a pick 6. You could make a case if the Texans sneak into the playoffs he takes it.
Watson had a good start in 2019 and in 2018 lead the Texans on a 9 game winning streak after starting 0-3, but I don’t think he was every the favorite in either year. He was a fringe candidate at best I’d say.
​
Cardinals: Carson Palmer received 1 vote in 2015 after a terrific year where he and Cardinals went for over 4600 passing yards with 35 TDs. He led the league in Y/A, QBR, and ANY/A. However, I never felt like he was in the lead during the race. Cause Brady was the frontrunner after a 10-0 start, and by the time the Patriots faultered, Cam had ascended to another level with 25 TDs to 1 INT to finish the season. Vegas odds back this up, Palmer never lead the race.
Here I’d go with Kurt Warner. Especially considering the QB play was way down in 2008. Peyton ended up winning it with a fairly pedestrian 4002 yards, 27 TDs 12 INTs and the Colts didn’t even win their own division.
But through 10 games, Warner was 270-381 (70.8%) 3155 yards, 20 TDs and 7 INTs. He was on pace for 5048 yards passing, which would have been the 2nd most all time in 2008. (2nd place was Warner himself with 4830 yards, Marino was first). And the Cardinals were 7-3 and cakewalking to the NFC West crown. Despite the fact their run game was worst in the league. The voters agreed, Warner was the leader midway through season. So did Vegas
I said at the time if Warner put up numbers anything like he was on pace for he had to be the NFL MVP. Put up 5k yards, 32 TDs and 10 INTs and win your division, I don't see how you deny him the MVP.
But he faulted down the stretch and Peyton took MVP (What else is new).
​
Jets: Not counting Namath’s AFL MVP, the Jets have never really had an MVP candidate. Maybe if you want to be a contrarian and say Curtis Martin in 2004, where he had 1700 yards and 12 TDs, along with Jets going 10-6, you could but considering Peyton threw 49 TDs, your case would be slim at best
Jaguars: Again like the Jets, the Jaguars have not had a legit MVP candidate. No one had a real case here for me to even try to make one. However, I’m a huge believer in T-Law so maybe that fortunate can turn for Jacksonville.
​
Saints: Drew Brees had some historically great years, but always had them timed wrong. In 2009, he went 13-2 and led league in completion %, but Peyton had 7 4th quarter comebacks and went 14-0 before resting last 2 games. In 2011, he broke Dan Marino’s yardage record, going 13-3 but Aaron Rodgers had the most efficient season in league history. And in 2018, he broke his own completion % record again, but Mahomes went 5k and 50. Tough luck for Drew.
His best case for in 2018. He did lead the Vegas odds in the MVP race after Mahomes 5 Turnover days vs Rams. At the time Brees had 25 TDs to 1 INT, but faltered down the stretch, going on 7 TDs to 4 INTs and losing to the Cowboys.
​
Bucs: Tom Brady was in the running halfway through this year, especially when the Bucs were 6-2, but 3 losses in the next 4 ended any hopes he had to get the Bucs their 1st MVP. But I think he helped them get something a little better. With an offseason to get in rhythm, maybe Brady could get the MVP in 2021. He’s 44, but I’ve learned to never doubt Tom Brady.
Who is the most likely to get their 1st MVP?
In order from most likely to lease, I'd go

1. Cardinals- I really like Kyler's game. If he can cut down on his turnovers some and become a little more consistent passer, it wouldn't surprise me to see him win an MVP
2. Jaguars- I've seen Lawrence play since he was in high school. The man has it all. Build around him and he will light up the stat sheet. Jags got a great one and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't make Jags into a force in the AFC south
3. Jets- That 2nd overall pick looks good there. If they can pick the right QB from the Lance, Fields and Wilson bunch, I could see some offense brought to New York. I feel all 3 guys will need good coaching to reach their potential, but they all have high, MVP caliber ceilings
4. Bucs- I don't doubt Tom Brady, but winning MVP at age 44 would be remarkable. I don't see this as likely
5. Saints- Sean Payton is a great offensive mind, but with no Brees and some questions at the QB spot, I don't think an MVP is coming to NOLA anytime soon
6. Texans- If Deshaun is traded which is looking very likely, Houston will be in a full rebuild. No QB is winning MVP on a 3-13 squad, which unfortunately looks like Houston's future right now

What are your thoughts? Which team will finally get their 1st MVP?

Here is the much awaited 3.0 Mock! Though some QB movement is inevitable, I didn't mock and player trades, just draft capital trades. My analysis for each team is at the bottom.
Round 1
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
1.26) Browns - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
Round 2
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits.
Cincinnati Bengals
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge.
Cleveland Browns
1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg provides and elite, cheap fill and can be a franchise player. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one.
Buffalo Bills
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
The Bills are a complete team that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. However, they will need to get better in the trenches if they want to compete with the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Mayfield only played 1 season at Michigan, but the need on the right side of the line in evident. Look for the Bills to also look at DE, LB, CB, or even trade down to a team trying to grab a late first rounder.
Miami Dolphins
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority.
New England Patriots
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Moore provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field.
New York Jets
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. Drafting basically BPA at every spot this year, they select a QB replacement, a long athletic edge, and some more depth in the OL.
Houston Texans
#fireeasterby
Indianapolis Colts
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Trask and Sam Cosmi will be good replacements.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive.
Tennessee Titans
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Jaelen Philips fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.
Denver Broncos
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense.
Defensive line can’t be ignored as a potential concern. They have five free agents-to-be up front, including Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker. Not all of them will come back, we suspect. Even with Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, McTelvin Agim and maybe Mike Purcell, some depth and insurance would be nice.
Kansas City Chiefs
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents.
Las Vegas Raiders
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
Now, the Chargers going after Pitts is a decision that has to be made after they figure out what they’re going to do with Hunter Henry. Henry is currently playing on the franchise tag for an AAV of $10.6 million. Before both Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed their huge extensions, Henry was the highest paid tight end based on AAV. The Chargers are looking a having to chose between Henry and defensive end Melvin Ingram to bring back. A cheaper, possibly better option at tight end could be for the taking in the first round of the NFL Draft in Kyle Pitts.
NFC
Chicago Bears
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first.
Detroit Lions
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. Over the next few weeks, the debate will be had regarding whether or not Detroit should trade down, especially since the team only possesses five total picks this year. Dan Campbell is in year 1, and as long as Rodgers is in GB, odds are they will not make the playoffs. Lions have many holes and the logical thing to do is to trade down and gather as much draft capital as possible. Look for WFT, NE, MIA, or IND as other potential trade partners.
The trade I mocked was the exact same as the Buf-Tampa trade that resulted in Josh Allen in Buffalo. Yes, you don’t need to trade 3 firsts to move up in the first round.
Green Bay Packers
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers.
Minnesota Vikings
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.
Dallas Cowboys
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. With Slater, Sewell, Surtain, and Farley all gone, this is the worst possible scenario for the boys.
Aldon Smith has played well for the Cowboys this season and may have set himself up for a nice payday over the offseason. With Dallas in a less than ideal cap situation, they may choose to let Smith walk and try to replace him in the draft. In this scenario, Paye would make a ton of sense for the team if they end up picking towards the end of the top 10.
New York Giants
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Waddle e might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need.
Philadelphia Eagles
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. There’s no question that the Eagles need help at cornerback. They came into this season with Darius Slay as their top corner and even though he hasn’t been elite, he’s been the best CB1 they’ve had since Asante Samuel. The problem is that they lined up Avonte Maddox on the other side and Maddox just simply isn’t a good enough starting outside corner. The Eagles have struggled to draft cornerbacks — think back to Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas in 2017 — so it’s scary to think about them getting this wrong. But Surtain has an NFL pedigree and at 6-1, isn’t the type of undersized corner we’ve seen the Eagles trot out there during the Jim Schwartz era. Surtain is a true first-round pick and one of the best corners in this draft.
Washington Football Team
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Marshall at 51 is hard to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe they can do many things. With Matt Ryan on the backend of his career and Julio Jones turning 33, ATL will need to do turn the page soon to be relevant again.
Carolina Panthers
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. Instead of a QB, they take Slater. Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly.
The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level.
New Orleans Saints
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
*Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28*
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Onwuzurike and Grant could help the team for years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
With it a possibility that Shaq Barrett opts to leave in free agency, the Buccaneers could find themselves looking for a quarterback hunter. Ossai could fit right in with what they like to do on defense and create havoc for that defense. Should he slide to No. 25, Ossai should be ripe for the picking by the Tampa Bay front office.
LT Donovan Smith has been reliable in terms of his durability and availability, but his performance over the last five years has been inconsistent at best. He’s also scheduled to make more than $14 million next season, though none of that money is guaranteed. That means the Bucs could move on from him without any dead money, and considering how tight the team in terms of salary cap space, they could save a ton of money with a younger, cheaper option like Radunz.
Arizona Cardinals
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
With the gaping void left in the Arizona Cardinals secondary following the inevitable loss of franchise-cornerback Patrick Peterson, the 2021 NFL Draft offers an opportunity for Arizona to directly replace their isolation-corner with a prospect built in a similar mold. All-Pro safety Budda Baker looks to be one of the few returning members of the Arizona secondary and is in need of a complimenting talent on the opposite side of the hashes.
Los Angeles Rams
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Chazz Surratt is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker.
San Francisco 49ers
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
*Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second*
San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others.
Seattle Seahawks
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
Russell Wilson did not look comfortable at quarterback as his ecosystem became increasingly fragile this season. The success of the #LetRussCook movement, more or less, died as protection slowly got worse and worse. In the Wild Card game, Seattle's offensive line struggled mightily, allowing its worst pressure rate of the year - a 67 percent clip on all dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.

Welcome to the week 11 Official NFL Power Rankings! It was an eventful weekend, all that fans (of most teams) could reasonably ask for. Whose top 15 are upside down? Is any team more PFF than substance? Happy 2 million, Discuss! 31/32 reporting

#		Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.		Steelers	+1	10-0	Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this.
2.		Chiefs	-1	9-1	The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week.
3.		Saints	+1	8-2
4.		Rams	+6	7-3	Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick.
5.		Packers	-2	7-3	"MVS giveth, MVS taketh away"
6.		Colts	+7	7-3	The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season.
7.		Seahawks	+5	7-3	The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby.
8.		Bills	--	7-3	The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division.
9.		Buccaneers	-4	7-4	He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next.
10.		Titans	+4	7-3	The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season.
11.		Ravens	-5	6-4	This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend.
12.		Cardinals	-5	6-4	Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical.
13.		Raiders	--	6-4	Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well.
14.		Browns	+1	7-3	The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week.
15.		Dolphins	-6	6-4	After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues.
16.		Bears	+2	5-5	The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season.
17.		Panthers	+3	4-7	The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film.
18.		49ers	+1	4-6	Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list.
19.		Vikings	-3	4-6	Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR.
20.		Patriots	-3	4-6	Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good!
21.		Broncos	+4	4-6	Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph.
22.		Chargers	+1	3-7	This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week.
23.		Falcons	-1	3-7	Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons...
24.		Texans	+4	3-7	Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans.
25.		Lions	-4	4-6	The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it.
26.		Giants	+1	3-7	If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next.
27.		Washington FT	+2	3-7	And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game.
28.		Eagles	-2	3-6-1	Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway."
29.		Cowboys	+1	3-7	Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope.
30.		Bengals	-6	2-7-1	The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell.
31.		Jaguars	--	1-9	It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help.
32.		Jets	--	0-10	The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs.

I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider:
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
✅ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces OPEN ✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces OPEN ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ✅ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - ADVANCED TO DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND Cleveland Browns +5000 - 10 ounces OPEN Chicago Bears +8000 - 10 ounces OPEN ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not?
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

Hey Ravens fans! We tracked & analyzed all the picks made from the sports media industry. Here’s what the experts at outlets like ESPN, The Athletic, and NBC have for the game:
Vegas Odds:

• Money line: BUF -143 (58.8% win probability)
• Spread: BUF -3
• OveUnder: 49.5 points

Media Consensus:

• 63% of analysts picked the Bills to win straight up
• 60% pick BUF to cover the spread
• 69% pick OVER 49.5 points

Notable analyst take:

Jamison Hensley, ESPN- “The Ravens' Lamar Jackson will become the first quarterback to rush for 100 yards in consecutive playoff games. He produced just the sixth 100-yard rushing game by a quarterback in the playoffs in last weekend's wild-card round when he ran for 136 at Tennessee. The Bills haven't allowed a quarterback to gain more than 61 yards rushing over the past two seasons, containing Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and even Jackson -- who was held to 40 rushing yards in Buffalo 13 months ago.”

Full industry breakdown & analysis
https://preview.redd.it/685kv3ytdpb61.png?width=1604&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f7fe17f37b5e93d10839c714672594abe59f440

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft.
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they?
2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more...
3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special.
7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival.
8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State
I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position.
TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick.
9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors.
11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense.
13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country.
15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders).
18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense.
19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State
Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player.
20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come.
21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games.
TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022.
23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL.
26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well.
28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points.
29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas
Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG.
31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest.
32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter.
​
THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT

32. Houston Texans, 4-12 (previous rank: 30)
With it being official that the Texans cut JJ Watt. the Texans are dead last in the NFL. The Texans, even with JJ Watt, ended 4-12 and third in their division. They were beaten by teams that they shouldn't have lost too, including the Bengals, and some games were hilariously too close for comfort, especially the Jaguars game that ended at 25 - 27.
The Texans are in a terrible position, and if Deshaun Watson is traded. . .then this team could have a 0-16 season.
31. Detroit Lions, 5-11 (previous rank: 31)
The Lions could be contenders for the 2022 and 2024 seasons, earning themselves two extra first round draft picks, but they definitely won't this season. Even with Stafford, a top ten QB, they finished at 5-11, worst in their division. Now they'll be playing with Jared Goff, who is a downgrade. They might get a higher ranking if they draft correctly this season.
30. New York Jets, 2-14 (previous Rank: 31)
The Jets are quite possibly the most interesting offseason team. They have a lot of cap space and draft picks at their disposal and, unlike the Texans and lions, have a lot to work with. If they can get Deshaun Watson, they could be playoff contenders. It actually get's better. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald - one of the top reporters in the business - the Jet's are Watson's preferred team. If they manage to get him the Jets could be ejected to the top 16.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15 (previous rank: 32)
NOTE: this ranking assumes that Trevor Lawrence is on the roster. If Lawrence is, then the Jaguars can no longer be ranked as the worst team in the NFL.. Their offense is a little below average, but they do have some weapons. Unfortunately, this team can't rank any higher as their defense is a complete disaster.
28. Philadelphia Eagles, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 29)
The Eagles are most likely trading Carson Wentz, but the front office probably overpriced him. They are demanding two second round draft picks, but they should probably be the ones giving it away. The Eagles finished lower than even my expectations, and I hate the Eagles. (My Father is a Washington fan)
27. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 28)
I joked about the Bengals starting a cardboard cutout of Penei Sewell at left tackle in 2021 because they ruined their chances of landing him with a late win, but the Dolphins could conceivably select Devonta Smith, which would mean Sewell would be the pick at No. 5. That's the good news. The bad news is that Joe Burrow may not be ready for the season opener. Cincinnati is difficult to rank for that reason.
26. North Carolina Panthers, 5-11 (previous rank: 22)
Teddy Bridgewater was not Teddy Bridgewater this season. He threw for countless end zone interceptions just in week 17, and the Panthers, overall, finished third in their division with a record of 5-11, and there was little difference from the 2019 season.
25. Atlanta Falcons, 4-12 (previous rank: 25)
The Falcons say that they plan on retaining Matt Ryan, but with a cap space 31 million dollars over, it seems very unlikely. If Atlanta Selects Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, there will be pressure to start the rookie and trade Matt Ryan. Either way, the Falcons aren't going to be very competitive next season as they'll need to cut some players to get under the cap.
24. New York Giants, 6-10 (previous rank: 24)
The Giants put up a fight this season, nearly making the playoffs by one game. Now they'll be better with Saquon Barkley's return to the line up, who was missing ever since an injury on week 2. Nate Soldier's return should help as well.
23. Dallas Cowboys, 6-10 (previous rank: 26)
Dallas is rumored to be an elite force in 2021 with Dak Prescott as the opener. But what about the offensive and Defensive line? Dallas wasn't even winning games when Prescott was the opener early is 2020.
22. Washington Football Team, 8-8 (previous rank: 22)
Washington made huge steps from the 2019 season, and now Chase Young will have experience. There defense was pretty dominant in 2020 and is expected to be the same, if not better, in 2021. Even though my father might hate me for ranking his team in the bottom half of the league, their offense is struggling. There QB situation is also a question mark, which is never a good sign. Of course, if they draft themselves a Jackpot QB, they could bounce forwards to the top 16, possibly 12.
21. New England Patriots. 7-9 (previous rank: 20)
The Patriots are a very difficult team to rank without knowing their QB situation. If they can land Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, they will definitely become a playoff contending team again.
20. Minnesota Vikings, 7-9 (previous rank: 21)
The Minnesota Vikings are in an unusual QB situation. Kirk Cousins has shown dominance when playing weaker teams, throwing for 400 yards in week 17 against the Lions. This makes some fans think that Cousins should stay and was worth the terrible contact they signed. Their defense also stinks, and, according to Locked On Today podcast, the "Vikings were too soft this season."
19. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 (previous rank: 20)
The Chargers showed some promise with their QB this season, and managed to put up more of a fight then most expected. If Herbert doesn't regress, the Chargers may have a shot at the playoffs this year, however slim.
18. Denver Broncos, 5-11 (previous rank: 18)
The Broncos are another hard team to rank. If they supply themselves with an actual QB like Matt Ryan, the Broncos team will become a serious competitor for the Super Bowl. I had a lot of controversy in my mind over where this team stands, and I still think I ranked them to high.
17. Chicago Bears, 8-8 (previous rank: 19)
This Bears team is a real dilemma. They're defense is good, but their offense is a lot of question marks, especially QB wise. NVP Mitchell Trybulski has not shown the spark he once had. The offensive line was a mess last season, and even though their defense was good, it wasn't enough to get them higher than 8-8.
16. Las Vegas Raiders, 8-8 (previous rank: 17)
You don't even have to watch a Raider's game to know they need to upgrade their defense. Their offense was surprisingly good and even Beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who were 14-2 this season. With a good defense the Raiders are a very serious playoff contender.
15. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8 (previous rank: 16)
Even though I am obviously a Rams fan, I respect my divisional rivals. They improved greatly this season and managed to pull of an upset against the 13-3 Buffalo Bills. They would have been much higher on this list if they hadn't lost 7-18 to a Rams team with a backup QB.
14. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5 (previous rank: 8)
The Colts missed out on Mathew Stafford, so unless the Texans want to trade Deshaun Watson to a divisional rival, the Colts are stuck in the QB position. The Colt's two options as of now are Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz. unfortunately for the Colts, the Falcons are possibly not trading Matt Ryan and the Eagles are asking way to much for Carson Wentz. Things look grim for the Colts, but patience is the best thing the can do right now.
13. Tennessee Titans, 11-5 (previous rank: 7)
The Titans were dominant into the midway point of the season, however they began to slip near the end. This team's ranking will have to depend on how they fare without their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who recently took Atlanta's head coach job.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-4 (previous rank: 12)
For the first time in my five years of writing Offseason Power Ranking, this is the first time the Steelers ended up behind the Top Ten. Big Ben was regressing later down the season. They lost to teams they shouldn't have, like Washington. And even though the defense was good this season, they were kicked from the playoffs by the Browns. The Steelers did not live up to expectations at all.
11. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4 (previous rank: 11)
The Seahawks had a strange inconsistency throughout the season. Either their offense was great and their defense was trash, or vise versa. The Seahawks have gotten lots of flak for their offensive line negligence, but it's not like they haven't tried to repair it. They traded for Duane Brown, spent a first-round pick on Germain Ifedi and found a gem in the third round last year when they selected Damien Lewis. That said, they probably should've addressed the offensive line further when they wasted a first-round pick on L.J. Collier in 2019.
10. Miami Dolphins, 10-6 (previous rank: 13)
Despite finishing 10-6 this season, the Dolphins are a fierce competitor for the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for me, this team is hard to rank because they are linked with Watson. If they start with Tua Tagovailoa this year they could be major playoff competitors. If they start with Deshaun Watson, they would be Super Bowl Contenders.
9. Cleveland Browns, 11-5 (previous rank: 10)
The Browns have shown unnatural aggressiveness, this season, going all the way to putting a fight up against the 14-2 Chiefs in the Divisional Round. For all five years of writing power rankings, the Browns were either in the low 30s or the high 20s. Now their breaking the top ten. Of course, everything depends on if Baker Mayfield plays like he did in 2019 or 2020. Hopefully for the Brown's it the latter.
8. New Orleans Saints, 12-4 (previous rank: 5)
With Drew Brees most likely retiring, the New Orleans Saints will be playing without the All-Star QB for the first time in 15 years. The only reason they still break the top ten is because they still have a lot of weapons. But, if I could, I would rate them a question mark. They are in cap space hell, and we don't know how well they'll actually play without Brees. For now, however, the Saints remain in the top 10.
7. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10 (previous rank: 14)
It hurts me write this, but the 49ers are main competitors for the playoffs and even the Super Bowl. They injured so many players last year, and if they don't do that this season, they could regain those 2019-2020 vibes. They may not be the best team in the NFC, but if they don't injure players like they did last season, they could be easy favorites.
6. Baltimore Ravens, 11-5 (previous rank: 6)
The Ravens are a strong team, and they'll be even better with Ronnie Stanley returning to play. Their only major flaw is the passing game. They ranked very low in the subject and it cost them a divisional round game. If they manage to improve on that, they could become the team to beat in the NFC North.
5. Buffalo Bills, 13-3 (previous rank: 4)
The Bills, unfortunately, were the worst team in the Championship round. They didn't play like they used to. They'll most likely be back next year, but they'll still have Patrick Mahomes in the way. Will this Bills team end up being like the 90s Utah Jazz team, who were really good but never won because they kept running into Michael Jordan? For the Bill's Mafia that has waited 25 years for this, I hope not.
4. Green Bay Packers, 13-3 (previous rank: 3)
This Packers Team would probably be first on this list and be the team throwing the Lombardi trophy across boats if they had drafted Chase Claypool or Tee Higgins instead of -Shudder!- Jordan Love. This team fortunately has an amazing chance at the Super Bowl, but this time they don't have a first round draft pick. . .they would probably draft another QB anyway,
3. Los Angeles Rams, 10-6 (previous rank: 9)
The Rams made a huge jump on the ranking table after the Stafford-Goff trade, and they could jump even further if they can draft players like Marvin Jones. And every Rams fan prays that they somehow manage to draft JJ Watts. The Rams have a bright future, even though it might be short term
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 14-2 (previous rank: 1)
First off, I didn't put the Chiefs at number 2 just because they lost the Super Bowl, its because I know the effects of losing them. The 2018 Los Angeles Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7 after they lost the Super Bowl, and they didn't lose by 22 points. Fortunately, Patrick Mahomes is still young and none of their players are being traded, so they still have amazing odds for the Super Bowl.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 11-5 (previous rank: 2)
The Buccaneers have the G.O.A.T on their side, and their defense seems to be just getting better and better. The only problem I can see is how long it will last. The Tampa Defense struggled earlier in the season and could detain them from getting an incredible record. That doesn't mean they aren't my favorite team to win it all.
​
Thanks for reading! These take a lot of time and effort, so please be supportive!

PREVIOUS BETS STAND AT ODDS AGREED WHEN PLACED. UPDATED ODDS LISTED JUST BENEATH THIS HEADER AND APPLY TO ALL NEW WAGERS. SAME TOTAL LIMITS APPLY (10 OUNCES TOTAL PER TEAM, ALL BETTORS COMBINED, UNLESS I'VE LISTED OTHERWISE UNDER THE NEW ODDS AT TOP!!).

UPDATED ODDS (MONDAY THE 11TH, DIVISIONAL ROUND):
New Orleans Saints +550 - 5 ounces with sweenothe11 FULL! Buffalo Bills +600 - 5 ounces with Addictedtocoins FULL! Baltimore Ravens +800 - 2 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with trent6295 FULL! Tampa Bay Buccaneers +850 - 5 ounces with ftsleepad FULL! Los Angeles Rams +1600 - 3 ounces with gahmby - 4 ounces with Lexicaltesticle - 3 ounces with trent6295 FULL! Cleveland Browns +2500 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 3 ounces with sweenothe11 - 2 ounces with tdb4807 FULL!
BETS MAY, AT MY SOLE DISCRETION, BE ACCEPTED EVEN AFTER ONE OR MORE OF THE GAMES HAVE BEGUN IN THIS ROUND, PARTICULARLY IF THE BET IS ON A GAME THAT HAS NOT YET BEGUN! I WILL CONFIRM WITH YOU THAT YOU STILL WISH TO PLACE THE BET IF THIS IS THE CASE AND THE GAME HAS BEGUN!
I'm looking to pay YOU the odds listed below if YOUR chosen team wins it all! Bets are open until the beginning of the first playoff game at 12pm Central on Saturday, January 9.
I STILL MAY (AT MY DISCRETION) ACCEPT LATE BETS, PARTICULARLY IF THE TEAM HASN'T BEGUN THEIR GAME, SO FEEL FREE TO ASK!
I will accept total wagers of up to 10 ounces of .999 silver TOTAL PER TEAM. If you do not have any feedback/enough feedback for a wager, I may require you to put down a deposit with me.
Odds (sourced from Vegas Insider):
YOU have the team of your choice below! For example, you get 10 ounces on the Buccaneers to win it all. If the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl this season, I pay you 100 ounces of .999 silver!
✅ Buffalo Bills +700 - 5 ounces with wkk3211 - 5 ounces with tdb4807 - 5 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+600) ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ❌ New Orleans Saints +700 - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - 4 ounces with tdb4807 (+750) - 2 ounces with ObjectiveAce (+750) - 5 ounces with sweenothe11 (+550) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ✅ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1000 - 2 ounces with jamcclea - 3 ounces with GorillaX - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with ToiletPlungerOfDoom - 5 ounces with ftsleepad (+850) ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ❌ Baltimore Ravens +1200 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 2 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+800) - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac (+800) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+800) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Seattle Seahawks +1300 - 3 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Mr_Sassypants - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Pittsburgh Steelers +2200 - 2 ounces with wkk3211 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+1700) - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Tennessee Titans +2800 - 2 ounces with grimcow - 2 ounces with Dnzomniac - 3 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 3 ounces with trent6295 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Los Angeles Rams +3000 - 3 ounces with gahmby (+1600) - 4 ounces with Lexicaltesticle (+1600) - 3 ounces with trent6295 (+1600) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Indianapolis Colts +4000 - 1 ounce with PMmePreciousMetals - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Cleveland Browns +5000 - 1 ounce with riskyentrepreneur (+5500) - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins (+2500) - 3 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja (+2500) - 3 ounces with sweenothe11 (+2500) - 2 ounces with tdb4807 (+2500) ELIMINATED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND ❌ Chicago Bears +8000 - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND ❌ Washington Football Team +8000 - 2 ounces with Addictedtocoins - 2 ounces with trent6295 - 5 ounces with TheDonkeyDominator - ELIMINATED IN WILD CARD ROUND
I would also like to wager MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 45 ounces of silver and I take the Packers to win it all, or MY OWN 10 ounces of silver vs. your 20 ounces of silver and I take the Chiefs to win it all.
✅ Kansas City Chiefs +200 - 10 ounces with ObjectiveAce ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND ✅ Green Bay Packers +450 - 10 ounces with GodfatherOfGanja - 5 ounces with Dnzomniac because fuck it why not? ADVANCED TO CONFERENCE ROUND
Give me some action, and good luck!!!

GO PACK GO!!!

​
https://preview.redd.it/qka6fzednt561.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a5f0ec3f783b413ce75d5ecce3361f6b05eff91
​
As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me.
Here we go:

Top-tier:

​
These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance.
​
​
1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead.
​
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad.
​
3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average.
​
4. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)
​
​

Contenders:

​
These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry.
​
​
5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A.
​
6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry.
​
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown.
​
8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary.
​
9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11).
​
10. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line.
​
11. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams.
​
12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.
​
​

Fringe playoff teams:

​
None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.
​
​
13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5
​
14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.
​
15. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).
​
16. New England Patriots (6-7)
These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.
​
17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets.
​
18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.
​
​

Striving to reach .500:

​
While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division.
​
​
19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position.
​
20. New York Giants (5-8)
Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead.
​
21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that.
​
22. Denver Broncos (5-8)
This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well.
​
23. Chicago Bears (6-7)
I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy.
​
24. Detroit Lions (5-8)
A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.
​
​

Already out of it:

​
The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate.
​
​
25. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division.
​
26. Houston Texans (4-9)
Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game.
​
27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise.
​
28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
​
29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense.
​
​
Final tier in the comments!
​
​
If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/
And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps
​
You can find all my social media linked there as well!

So I saw this post by u/mjd1119 on baseball the other day, and it intrigued me a lot. In the post, OP goes to baseball-reference.com and uses a feature that allows the user to go to a completely random player, box score, or other statistic. OP did this 10 times and wrote down each result they got, with some facts about the results. I saw the post and decided I wanted to try the same thing, but with football. Again, credit to u/mjd1119 for the post idea.
Result #1: San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons - November 4th, 2007
Heading into Week 9 of the 2007 NFL season, both the 49ers and Falcons were not in great shape. Both teams had not-so-impressive records, with the Falcons at 1-6 and 49ers at 2-5. This was a good old-fashioned Tank Bowl.
Overall, there wasn't really anything amazing about this game. Joey Harrington led the Falcons to a 20-16 win while going 14-25 on pass attempts for 138 yards with 0 passing touchdowns and 1 interception. Even with this subpar stat line, he still outperformed 49ers QB Alex Smith, who went 17-38 for 149 yards with 0 TDs and 3 INTs.
Also, Vegas got this one almost completely right, having the Falcons at -3.5.
Result #2: Ron Baker
Ron Baker was a right guard who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1978-1979, and the Philadelphia Eagles from 1980-1988. He only started in 3 games in 2 seasons for the Colts, but while on the Eagles, he started in every game he played in from 1981-1987. In his career, he had 4 fumble recoveries, but never had more than one is a season.
Oddly enough, in 1980 he returned a kickoff. It was in his only game he played that season, and it was also his first season for the Eagles. He was only able to return the kickoff for 6 yards. In the following season, he was made a right guard after not having an assigned position for his first 3 seasons. Guess he just wasn't cut out to be a kickoff returner.
Result #3: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers - January 1st, 2017
In the final week of the 2016 NFL season, the 2-13 49ers faced off against the 9-5-1 Seahawks. Despite having a bad season, the 49ers kept it close against the playoff-bound Seahawks, only falling short by 2 points in a 25-23 loss despite Vegas having the Seahawks at -11.5.
Seahawks QB Russell Wilson went 19-32 for 258 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs before being taken out late in the game for rookie QB Trevone Boykin, who went 4-6 for 42 yards and no TDs or INTs. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick had a good game despite the loss, going 17-22 for 215 yards and 1 TD with 0 INTs, earning a QB rating of 122.3.
Result #4: Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons - September 30th, 1979
In Week 5 of the 1979 NFL season, the 3-1 Redskins and 2-2 Falcons faced off on a warm 72º day in Atlanta. Despite Vegas having the Falcons at -3, the Redskins won this game 16-7.
Redskins QB Joe Theismann had a pretty average game, going 19-26 for 233 yards and 0 TDs with 1 INT.
On the other hand, Falcons QB Steve Bartowski had a terrible game. Going 6-26 for 105 yards and 0 TDs with 3 INTs, he earned an abysmal 4.3 QB rating.
Result #5: Tonawanda Kardex Career Receiving Leaders
The Tonawanda Kardex were a team that played in the NFL in 1921. They played only 1 game in the team's entire existence - a loss to the Rochester Jeffersons 45-0, and nothing they did in that game was documented.
So since they literally have no stats other than a 45-0 loss, they obviously don't have any career receiving leaders. So I'm just going to talk about the team instead.
The Tonawanda Kardex are the shortest-lived franchise in NFL history. They played in the New York Pro Football League from 1916-1919, were independent in 1920, and played in the NFL in 1921. They were a successful independent team in 1920, and had high hopes for the NFL. They began the 1921 season still as an independent team, and played 2 games before playing their only NFL game. Those 2 games were a 0-0 tie vs. the Syracuse Pros, and a 9-7 win against the Cleveland Panthers. However, after the embarrassing shutout loss to Rochester, they left the league after playing only one game as it was too expensive for the owners to keep the team in the NFL.
Result #6: Jack Call
Jack Call was a half back who played for the Baltimore Colts from 1957-1958 and the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1959. During his career, he only started in 3 games, all of them for Baltimore. In those games, he rushed 70 times for 299 yards and 0 TDs.
In 1958, he had some ups and downs. A down was that he fumbled 3 times on 37 carries and did not recover any of them. An up was that he won the NFL Championship with the Baltimore Colts.
Result #7: K'Lavon Chaisson
First of all, K'Lavon Chaisson sounds like a name straight out of the Key & Peele East/West Bowl.
K'Lavon Chaisson is a rookie linebacker currently playing for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was drafted by the Jaguars as the 20th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has started 2 out of 15 games this season and has 1 sack, 16 combined and 10 solo tackles, and 8 QB hits.
Result #8: Houston Oilers at Boston Patriots - October 13, 1968
In Week 6 of the 1968 AFL season, the 2-2 Boston Patriots, playing at Fenway Park, hosted the 1-4 Houston Oilers. The Oilers would go on to shut out the Patriots 16-0 despite both QBs having pretty bad games.
Oilers QB Bob Davis rushed 7 times for 59 yards and a TD. However, his passing game was not as good, going 10-25 for 119 yards and 0 TDs with 1 INT.
Bob "Lamar Jackson" Davis's passing game was still better than the Patriots' Mike Taliaferro, who went 8-34 for 98 yards and 0 TDs with 3 INTs, earning him a dismal QB rating of 2.8.
Result #9: John Brandes
John Brandes did not have a career to remember. He started in only 2 games in his career, all during his rookie season as a tight end with the Indianapolis Colts in 1987. In those 2 games, he had 5 receptions for 35 yards and 0 TDs.
It all went downhill from there. He didn't start in another game in his career, and had no receptions for the rest of his career. However, he did have a kickoff return for 10 yards and also had 3 fumbles. That's right- at least according to Pro Football Reference, he had 3 fumbles without a single reception for the rest of his career.
Result #10: 1983 Dallas Cowboys Team Vegas Lines
The 1983 Dallas Cowboys were favored to win in almost every game of the 1983 NFL season. Despite this, their expected W-L record was 10.6-5.4.
They ended up both exceeding and not meeting expectations, as they went 12-4 on the season and finished 2nd in the NFC East. Remember the days when you could go 12-4 and still not win the NFC East? Oh, how the times have changed.
​
Anyway, I hope you guys enjoyed! This was really fun to make. Again, thanks to u/mjd1119 for the idea.