Bookmaker | Definition of Bookmaker by Merriam-Webster
Bookmaker | Definition of Bookmaker by Merriam-Webster
bookmaker | meaning in the Cambridge Learner’s Dictionary
The SP Bookmaker
Bookmaker - definition of bookmaker by The Free Dictionary
BOOKMAKER | meaning in the Cambridge English Dictionary
Bookmaker | Definition of Bookmaker by Oxford Dictionary
bookmaker - English to Turkish Meaning of bookmaker
bookmaker | meaning of bookmaker in Longman Dictionary of
bookmaker | Origin and meaning of bookmaker by Online
Bookmaker Meaning | Best 6 Definitions of Bookmaker
bookmaker meaning
bookmaker meaning - win
I have been a matched betting enthusiast for years and now I am teaching it for free to everyone.
Hey beermoneyukers! After years working in my 9-5 job as a website developer for a large corporation I decided I could not face selling my soul any longer lols and packed in my job. Since then, I had a stint working as a freelancer whilst also making a healthy side income via matched betting. And over the past 9 months I’ve been building a website that teaches people how to do the same. There are a lot of websites out there that teach matched betting, but most require a monthly subscription and most have long articles that can be a bit dry and hard to follow. So instead, I built a website, Team Profit, that: Is completely free Uses animated video guides to teach people (link) Has infographics to accompany all video guides Provides step by step guides for 25+ bookmaker offer which will make you £600+ risk free (link) I have amended the video script over 50 times to try to make it as concise and helpful as possible, hopefully they are a good watch! Any feedback on the videos, guides, blog or anything else, please let me know, I spend every day adding new content and improving existing content. If you are thinking of learning matched betting and making £600+ risk free, please check it out! www.teamprofit.com
MEGA FAQs GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING
The video guides I posted above will teach you everything about matched betting. However, I figure no harm in me writing down everything I know about matched betting in an FAQ style layout. Hopefully this will be useful to you. I have tried to answer every question as concise as possible / no rambling :D I have split the FAQs into the following sections:
INTRODUCTION 1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free? 2) How popular is matched betting? 3) Does it involve gambling? 4) How much money will I need to start? 5) How much time will it take me to learn matched betting?
OFFERS & YOUR PROFIT 1) How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)? 2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit? 3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month from Daily Offers (existing customer offers)? 4) What type of Daily Offers are available?
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGES 1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers? 2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers? 3) What is mug betting? 4) What is a betting exchange? 5) How do we use a betting exchange?
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS 1) How sustainable is matched betting? 2) Will it impact my credit rating? 3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing? 4) Do I need to know about sports?
WHICH WEBSITES TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS 1) Where can you learn matched betting?
ADDITIONAL FAQS 1) Depositing and withdrawing 2) Sending identification documents Any questions that haven’t been answered please add a comment and I’ll add the FAQ and answer.
INTRODUCTION
1) What exactly is matched betting and how I do make money risk free? There are more than 25 online bookmakers in the UK. In order to attract new customers, they each offer free bets, known as ‘Welcome Offers’. In total they offer over £800 in free bets to new customers. In order to receive the free bet, bookmakers require you to place your first bet. An example offer is ‘Bet £5, Get £20 free bet’. The risk is that you could lose both the £5 bet (your own cash) and the £20 free bet. By using a technique called matched betting, we remove this risk. This is because we match our first £5 bet on the bookmaker with a £5 bet on a betting exchange on the opposite outcome (this is known as a ‘lay bet’). For example, we bet £5 on Man Utd to win on the bookmaker, and £5 on Man Utd not to win on the betting exchange. As we have now bet on all outcomes, regardless of whether Man Utd win, draw or lose, we will neither win nor lose money. However, we have received the £20 free bet! With the £20 free bet, we can now repeat this process by betting on say Liverpool to win on the bookmaker and Liverpool not to win. This time, because we are using a £20 free bet but our winnings are paid out in cash, we will always make a profit. We repeat this process for 25+ bookmakers, one by one. In total we can convert the £800+ in free bets to over £600+ in actual cash profit, in very little time at all.
2) How popular is matched betting? Matched betting isn’t new and has been around since at least 2005. However, it is only since 2015 that it has really increased in popularity due to the rise of websites teaching matched betting. You can see this trend here: Google Trends Link By looking at the various matched betting sites popularity, a reasonable estimate is at least 25,000 people in the UK are matched betters. You can see a review of sites that teach matched betting in the ‘Which websites teach matched betting?’ section below.
3) Does it involving gambling? This is the most common assumption with matched betting. You’d be forgiven for thinking that it did involve gambling simply because the name ‘matched betting’ would suggest it did. However, matched betting does not involve gambling, you will never be risking a penny. Because we are always covering the opposite outcome occurring, there is never any risk we will lose money. Furthermore, we still receive the free bets which we will where we make our profit. The profitability and risk free nature of matched betting has been reviewed in the Daily Telegraph and the Guardian
4) How much will I need to start? You can start with as little as you want, however the lowest I would recommend starting with would be £25. With £25, you can start your first bookmaker welcome offer and make a deposit into your first betting exchange, meaning you can start making a profit. For more details, see this Starting with £25 guide. The downside, with only £25 you are restricted by having to wait for withdrawals before you can move onto the next offer. Therefore, I would say an optimal amount to have available for your cash flow would be in the region of £200 as this allows you to complete multiple welcome offers simultaneously.
5) How long will it take me to learn matched betting? To learn the principles of matched betting, it will take up to 20 minutes. To become familiar with completing your first offer, I would set aside another 30-60 minutes so you can take your time and ensure you are completing it correctly. For example, the video guides on Team Profit last a total of 21 minutes (8 minutes for the explainers videos and 13 minutes to watch the step-by-step real time example). Although they last just 21 minutes, some users watch certain parts of the video again to become comfortable with the process. It is very much recommended to avoid trying to learn matched betting by yourself. There are thousands of experienced matched betters who can help you. For more details on this, see the ‘Which Websites Teach Matched Betting’ section. If you need any help anytime, please do comment in this Reddit thread and I’ll help you out.
OFFERS
1)How much money can I make matched betting from the welcome offers (new customer only)? From the welcome offer, you can make approximately £1,000 cash profit. There are 25+ bookmaker offers available on sports for at least £600 profit. These are relatively straightforward offers and good value in terms of time to complete. It would take around 12 hours to complete these offers, which works around £40 / hour tax free. You can complete them over any time period you like. There are at least another 5 bookmaker offers, such as Bet365 and BetVictor, though these require more time, you could make around £100 to £200. They require more time because the bookmaker requires you to bet many more times before you can withdraw. Plus 20+ offers across casino and bingo, though some are not risk free and typically take more time to complete, but you should be able to make at least £200 profit from these offers. So overall, there is an easy £600 profit risk free, then up to another £400 if it’s worth your time to do them.
2) How much is a free bet worth in actual cash profit? A £10 free bet is worth between £5 to £8 in actual cash profit. The reason for the range is because the higher odds you choose for your free bet, the more actual cash profit you will make. For example, if you bet on a football team with odds of 2.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £5 cash profit. Whereas if you bet on a football team that is unlikely to win, with odds of say 6.0, the £10 free bet will convert to around £8 cash profit. Note though, the higher odds you choose, the more you will need in your betting exchange account in case the bet wins. For a detailed explanation with examples, read this free bet profit article.
3) After I have finished the Welcome Offers, how much money can I make matched betting each month (from existing customer offers)? Anywhere from £100 to £1,000+ per month. Bookmakers continue to run free bet offers to retain their customers, I refer to these as Daily Offers. Daily Offers are typically less valuable than the welcome offers but still worth completing. For example, rather than ‘Bet £5 Get £20’ that they offer to new customers, they may instead run ‘Bet £20 Get £10’ and on a particular football match. I would say for people with a day job, aiming for between £300 to £500 a month is realistic. In terms of time required, for every hour you spend, you should make around £30 tax free. So to make £300 a month, expect to spend around 2-3 hours a week. I’d say to earn more than this, you will likely need to accept a lower hourly rate and do some of the low value offers too. If you are looking to make £1,000+, I’d expect you would have to be near full time and also be fortunate to keep your enough of your bookmaker accounts open for 12+ month period (what is mugging bet FAQ below).
4) What type of offers are available for existing customers?
Easy offers: The most common easy offer on football matches is Bet £20 Get £10 free bet. Many bookmakers run this offer, though it will usually be on a particular football match. The most common easy offer on horse racing is usually on SkyBet, who will run simple offers such as ‘Get £25 free bet if your horse comes 2nd or 3rd’. There are also easy casino offers, such as ‘£5 risk free’, where you spin on slots and hope to win, if you don’t they’ll refund up to £5 of losses. These offers can make you up to £300 per month (or £500 on a good month with European football) and are easy for those with a day job.
Harder offers: If you are looking to make more than £300 to £500 a month, then you will need to spend time on Saturday’s completing horse racing offers on Channel 4 racing and during the week too, though Saturday’s are the most profitable. Plus you will need to do more advanced offers such as football accumulator refunds, each way offers, though I will leave these aside given they could have their own separate thread :p If you’d like to understand where you can learn more about these offers, see ‘Which sites teach matched betting?’ FAQ below.
BOOKMAKERS AND BETTING EXCHANGE
1) Which bookmakers have the best welcome offers?
There are 3 formats of bookmakers welcome offers.
‘Bet £X Get £Y free bet’ - these are the most straightforward. Simply place your first bet and receive a free bet. This format of welcome offer, ranging from Bet £5 Get £20 to Bet £50 Get £50, is available on Coral, SkyBet, BetBright, Betfred, Paddy Power, BetStars, William Hill, Stan James, Betway, Ladbrokes, TitanBet, 32Red and MarathonBet.
‘Refunds’ (also known as Risk Free offers) - these are similar to Bet £X Get £Y free bet. The only difference is you only receive your free bet if your first bet loses, hence I refer to these offers are refund offers. This format of welcome offer is, ranging from £10 to £50 refunds, is available on Bwin, Dafabet, UniBet, Totesport, 188Bet, SuperLenny, Genting and 888Sport.
‘Multi Bets’ - these welcome offers require multiple bets to be placed before receiving your reward. It can take form of a bonus which requires to bet £X amount until you can withdraw any winnings, or the form of a cash reward once you have bet £X amount. This format of welcome offer is available on Bet365, BetVictor and some other bookmakers, however they often require such a large amount of betting that I haven’t included them in this list. The quickest to complete are the Bet £X Get £Y due to their simplicity, then the next best are the ‘Refunds’ offers. The Multi Bet offers can be very valuable (e.g. Bet£365’s offer is worth over £150 profit risk free) but can also require much larger deposits in order to place the bookmaker bets and lay these bets in your Exchange.
2) Which bookmakers have the best offers for existing customers?
Bookmakers vary in their level of generosity to existing customers. This is a little subjective, but in my opinion, this is the ranking of bookmakers for existing customers:
Best: Bet365 Bet365 run a £50 Risk Free offer most months (sometimes twice a month during popular football months) which is worth £35. It is very quick to complete (less than 10 minutes) so for £35 to £70, or around £500 a year, it is a great offer. Plus they have one of the best horse racing offers, up to a £50 risk free bet if your pick a winning horse with high odds. This is a profitable offer worth around £20-£30 a week, or up to £1,000 to £1,500 a year.
Second Best: SkyBet SkyBet run regular £5 to £25 free bet offers on horse racing and football, plus regular £5 risk free offers in SkyVegas.
Third & Fourth Best: Coral and Paddy Power Both these sites run regular horse racing, price boosts and football offers (Bet £20 Get £10 in particular), at least £20 to to be made on every week from these two sites.
Good: William Hill, Ladbrokes, BetStars, Stan James, Betway, Bwin, Betfred, Totesport, 188Bet, 888, BetVictor All these bookmakers run offer(s) each week so it’s worth ensuring you have completed the welcome offer for each of these sites so you can take advantage of their daily offers for existing customers.
3) What is mug betting? If you are only ever betting when you receive an offer, the bookmaker will no longer allow your account to receive free bet offers (this is known as being ‘gubbed’). To get around this, you should place ‘mug’ bets. ‘Mug’ bets are simply bets that a ‘mug’ punter would place. Mug bets include £1 accumulators (betting on several teams to win) and betting on favourites without an offer. Most advice suggests that for every offer you receive, you should place 2-3 mug bets. If you are gubbed, it does kinda suck when you receive the email, as you can no longer profit from the bookmaker’s offers. It is also becoming increasingly common as bookmakers are noticing more suspected matched bettors, due to its increasing popularity. My advice is to make money whilst you can and take sensible precautions to try to keep your account active. For more details, see this Mug Betting article
4) What is a betting exchange? A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet between each other on the outcome of particular events. This differs from a traditional bookmaker because an exchange also gives you the ability to be the bookmaker yourself and take bets from other exchange users. Standard bookmakers generate profit by offering odds that are in their favour. Betting exchanges explained in terms of how they generate revenue is they charge a commission on any winnings a player receives. The two market leading betting exchanges are, Betfair and Smarkets. For more details, Betting Exchanges Comparison.
5) How we use betting exchanges? When matched betting, a betting exchange is used to place our lay bets (the opposite bet to our trigger bet). So when we place the trigger bet with the bookmaker on one outcome to release the initial free bet, we must also cover the opposite outcome so that if the bookmaker bet does lose we still win on the lay bet - making it risk free! Similarly when we are placing the free bet bet with the bookmaker we then lay off that bet using the exchange and because we’re using a free bet but being paid out in cash, this is how we turn free bets into withdrawable cash. We only ever use betting exchanges for lay bets.
ADDRESSING COMMON CONCERNS
1) How sustainable is matched betting? Matched betting over the past 6-9 months has become harder. Most bookmakers have realised they are thousands of matched betters taking advantage of their offers and so have either reduced the generosity of their offers or have made the daily offers more complicated. However, there is still intense competition between the bookmakers, meaning they will always run special offers to an extent. By spending a few hours a week, you can still make £300 to £500 a month, whereas in past year(s) this figure could have been £500 to £800. The biggest issue matched betters face is being ‘gubbed’. As explained in the mug betting FAQ, this is when a bookmaker restricts you from receiving free bets and bonuses. There are various theories as to how a particular bookmaker decides to to gub a customer. Reasons include taking up too many offers, winning a high % of bets, withdrawing regularly, placing bets far in advance or at irregular times. The truth is nobody really knows precisely why people gubbed. However, you can expect to get gubbed at some point from a particular bookmaker, it may be 2 months, it may be 2 years, it is hard to know. I really think though that everyone can make up to £1,000 from the Welcome Offers and at least £300 to £500 a month without any problems. I think the issues comes when you are making £1,000+ every month which sooner or later bookmakers will catch up that you are taking up a lot of offers. Having said this, some people say they have been making £1,000+ every month for years, so maybe it is possible if you are using a wide variety of bookmakers and consistently placing mug bets.
2) Will it impact my credit rating? Having betting activity on your bank statement does not impact your credit rating. The only thing to be wary of when making betting deposits and withdrawals is that it can affect your application for a mortgage. So if you’re planning on applying for a mortgage in the near future then I’d recommend using a separate bank account to that which you’ll be applying for the mortgage with.
3) Do the bookmakers have terms to stop customers from withdrawing? The vast majority of welcome offers do not have any withdrawal restrictions. A handful of welcome offers do but this will be state in the terms and conditions. It is much easier though to use a matched betting website as they will clearly highlight the key terms of each offer (see ‘Which websites teach matched betting’ section below). Casino offers will almost always have withdrawal restrictions, however for the matched betting welcome offers we are focusing on sports betting.
4) Do I need to know about sports? Not at all! You do not need a sports background or have any sort of betting knowledge, many matched betters do not know anything about sport or betting before learning matched betting. You may learn matched betting a little faster if you have sports betting experience but it really isn't important at all.
WHICH WEBSITE TEACH MATCHED BETTING - YOUR OPTIONS
There are 30+ websites that three key stages to matched betting: Stage 1) Learning matched betting Stage 2) Completing the Welcome Offers (for new customers) Stage 3) Profiting in the long term from Daily Offers (for existing customers) Below I have tried to cover the main sites that will help you with each of these stages.
In summary, I may be biased :p but I think the: Stage 1) and Stage 2) best approach is to use TeamProfit.com Stage 3) Join a paid membership site, either OddsMonkey.com, ProfitAccumulator.co.uk or ProfitMaximiser.co.uk to continue to make money from the Daily Offers.
FREE SITES:
TeamProfit.com(link) I really believe Team Profit is the best site to learn matched betting and complete the welcome offers, but compare us to the other sites and see what you think! Learn matched betting with animated videos (link) 25+ Welcome Offers using the step by step guides (link) A free Facebook group to provide help to you anytime you need (link).
MoneySavingExpert.com(link) The advantage of MoneySavingExpert is the sheer volume of content, covering all aspects of matched betting. The disadvantage of MoneySavingExpert it is not well structured as it is just one forum with a long lists of posts so it takes quite a while to find relevant threads and miss key information.
MatchedBettingBlog.com(link) The advantage of MatchedBettingBlog is the clear layout of the daily offers posted each day for with step by step instructions. It’s a good site to check to avoid missing the best and easier daily offers. The forum community also helps to post additional offers on top of those listed on the homepage, and also provides general advice on completing daily offers. The disadvantage of MatchedBettingBlog is it is relatively limited in terms of teaching matched betting and does not provide a clear list of welcome offers. Also, for those looking to make £500+ every month, it doesn’t provide any software to help with the more advanced types of matched betting with daily offers, such as horse racing refunds and accumulator refunds, that the paid member sites offer. Additional free matched betting sites include: Matchedbettingfree.co.uk (link)(Reddit thread link) Freebets4all.com (link)
PAID SITES:
Paid sites usually charge £15 to £25 a month. In return, they will teach matched betting, provide list of welcome offers and provide daily offers too. Additionally, most paid sites will also provide software that helps to make you more money plus save you time.
OddsMonkey.com (link | non) OddsMonkey charge £15 per month or £150 per year. They are the most well known provider of matched betting software. Earlier this year, they added the full range of matched betting services, so now they provide all of the below: Tutorial articles Welcome offer step by step guides Daily offers calendar Software: OddsMatcher, Horse Racing Refunds, Tennis Refunds, range of calculators and spreadsheet Forum The advantage of OddsMonkey is the exceptional value. They have the best range of software and tools for matched betters to maximise their profits, are consistently bringing up new tools at no added cost. At only £15 per month it is one of the best options to consider. The only disadvantage is the forum is not as busy as the next two options, ProfitAccumulator and Profit Maximiser. Though the forum is still a sufficiently active to ensure any questions have you are answered quickly.
Profit Accumulator (Link - Chazmer87's I don't have one | non) Profit Accumulator charge £23 per month or £150 per year Profit Accumulator helped to bring matched betting to the main stream with a highly active community. There are clear similarities between OddsMonkey and Profit Accumulator in terms of their high standard of software and offers. The advantage of Profit Accumulator is their very active community. There is a great deal of advice in virtually every aspect of matched betting and the information is all well structured. Plus they have a very good offers coverage. The only disadvantage to Profit Accumulator is the higher cost. The membership itself is £23 per month, plus their version of the Horse Racing Refunds software is £10 per month, or £115 a year. So in total you are paying £33 per month versus OddsMonkey’s £15 per month.
Profit Maximiser (Link | non) Profit Maximiser is run by the original matched betting guru Mike Cruickshank. Mike has been building software for matched betters for many years and has a very active Facebook Group. Each piece of software is sold separately, I believe the below is accurate, each have their own £1 free trials: Bonus Bagging £27 plus VAT - provides a list of all welcome offers and teaching (Link | non) Profit Maximiser £97 plus VAT - provides all daily offers (Link | non) Each Way Sniper £47 plus VAT - provides a horse racing betting system (Link) Accumulator Generator £149 plus VAT - provides a football betting system (Link) I believe Mike may have a couple more tools, if so I’ll edit this post if you could please comment / send me a message. The advantage of Mike’s products is that there is no monthly recurring fee, so if you intend to do this for many months, it may work out profitable to do so. Plus from what I understand their Facebook Group finds some lucrative casino loophole offers faster than other matched betting providers. The disadvantage of Mike’s products is that you have to buy each product separately rather than having it all within one simple account. Additionally, the total cost if you were to buy all 4 above listed products is £320 + VAT (total cost £384) whereas you could receive all these tools for £15 per month from Oddsmonkey. Having said that, Mike’s products do come with a £1 free trial, just be careful to cancel before the trial ends if you don’t want to continue. Additional free matched betting sites include: Yes Bets link Pure Profit link
ADDITIONAL
1) Depositing and withdrawing To ensure you qualify for the Welcome Offer, use a bank card to deposit into your newly set up bookmaker account. Most sites will allow Paypal too though check the terms and conditions. If you use Skrill or Neteller, typically you will not qualify for the Welcome Offer (bookmakers have this rule to prevent fraud) but you can check the terms and conditions. Withdrawing is easy, you should receive your funds within 1-3 working days depending on the bookmaker.
2) Sending identification documents Occasionally, bookmakers may require to send in identification documents (passport or drivers licence for example) and a copy of your bank card. This is to prevent fraud. This usually happens if you are not listed on the Electoral Roll or there is a difference between your home address and billing address. Simply take a photo of the documents they ask for and email them back.
THAT COMPLETES THE MEGA FAQ GUIDE TO MATCHED BETTING!
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please do post a comment thanks!
CMV: The betting markets are better source of prediction about up coming current affairs events than news media.
I consider just looking to see what the betting markets say will happen on an issue to be a far more reliable than reading the news, or following a pundit, no matter how "honest" you think they are. To define "what the betting markets say will happen", I mean the implied probability of the market price on the betting markets. So if you're looking at the "X will beat Y" market, and it's 10/5, the betting markets says X wins 33% of the time. Of course, they're building in a little profit there, so it's off, and sometimes bookies want to balance their books so offer very unfavorable prices. But they never (excluding sign up deals, and so on, but I'm not talking about that) offer a bet that doesn't show a positive expectation in their estimation. I also look at the inverse of the bet to see if there's space between them, and there always is, but not on a scale that matters. "Y beats X" might be at 62%, and "X beats Y" might be at 33%, and that leaves a little gap, but that's good enough for me - I can walk around thinking "About 2/3rds of the time". But why trust the betting markets? Because they come to that price after an enormous amount of deliberation, because there's actual money on the line. Not only that, but the very existence of a bookmaker with a long history shows that they're actually profitably deliberating. They have two pressures on them. "Make sure it's profitable for us", and "Make sure it's more favorable than our competitors". Those two pressures in opposite directions squash the market price towards professional bookmaker's best guess, with just a little slither of profit for them on top. So why do I consider that better than the newsmakers best guess? Because they're doing none of those things, and barely experience the "get it right" pressure that bookies do. Sure, it's better to be right than wrong, but barely if you're a pundit. If you're just wrong again and again, that's going to catch up a bit, but really, nobody is paying that much attention. Getting it wrong for a pundit comes with maybe some ridicule on twitter, whereas getting it wrong for bookmakers means potentially millions of instant real money loses. Their financial incentive is to get people through the door today. That means that they'll report an election which is pretty much already settled as "really close", and so on. Also, the bookmakers express a probability, whereas the newsmakers express things broadly in three settings. "This ain't happening", "this might happen", or "This is totally happening". That's just not really accurate enough, or nuanced enough. A 1% chance is nothing like a 15% chance, but both of them tend to get reported as "Ain't happening". Caveats:
Obviously this only applies when there's at least a market for the bet. I don't mean "in general". I just mean on issues that the markets are covering.
This only applies when there's a competitive market for the bet. If there's just one bookmaker, all you can say is that it's "less likely than their odds imply", at most.
Americans have different ways of expressing odds to the UK where I'm at. You do this whole +400 thing, and I don't really know what it means. 2/1 means 33%. It means you put up a dollar, and if you win, they give you 3 total (which includes your returned stake).
Obviously the betting markets are "just looking at the news" at root, but I'm talking about doing that as an end retail user of news, even one who does deep dives. The way they "look at the news" is to have insiders, experts, and computer algorithms. A lot more than just me gutting out the BBC News website.
By "news media" and so on, I'm conglomerating them in to a body, like I am with "betting markets" vs "bookmakers". You might know the one guy who's always right, but I don't, so he doesn't work for me, and I just have to read all the papers.
Basically I'll be ranking players at RB, WR and TE by the probability that they're going to get into the end zone at any time during the game. Only just joined fantasyfootball this year (Great work everybody by the way!) and was surprised I couldn't find an analysis like this on here, especially considering how highly weighted touchdowns are in most standard scoring fantasy football games. Also in most cases (obviously not all though) If a player is more likely to score a touchdown it's because he's going to be more offensively prevalent and therefore accumulating more carries and yards, not just touchdowns. I feel this method will be beneficial for a few reasons:
The sheer amount of research bookmakers do is being used as data by us
The sample of different bookmakers means more accurate odds
There's no bias from bookmakers unlike the "Fantasy experts" usually used for rankings
Probabilities will be worked out by Bookmakers odds, with the longest odds being accepted as closest possible estimate to actual probability of a player scoring a touchdown. (i.e if 4 different bookmakers probabilites for player A to score are1/2, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/2then we accept the probabilty of player A to score to be the lowest probability =1/4 or 25%) If you want to know why this is a valid assumption to make, or have any other questions just message me :) We'll start with the RBs (Players on Thursday night games are ignored) To understand the difference column:
+ numbers mean expected to be better than experts anticipate
0 means the same as experts anticipate
- numbers mean not expected to be as good as experts anticipate
RB TOUCHDOWN ODDS FOR WEEK 5 MATCHUPS
Rank
Player
TD Prob. (%)
Fantasy Pros Rank
Difference
Comments
1
M Lynch
68.97
4
+3
2
L. McCoy
61.73
6
+4
=3.5
L. Bell
60.00
2
-1.5
=3.5
D. Murray
60.00
1
-2.5
5
R. Jennings
55.56
5
0
6
Gio. Bernard
54.95
7
+1
=8
F. Gore
52.36
9
+1
=8
M. Ball
52.36
13
+5
=8
M. Forte
52.36
3
-5
=11
K. Robinson
50.00
17
+6
=11
Z. Stacy
50.00
12
+1
=11
T. Gerhart
50.00
32
+21
=14.5
A. Bradshaw
47.62
19
+4.5
=14.5
A. Ellington
47.62
10
-4.5
=14.5
J. Charles
47.62
8
-6.5
=14.5
D. Brown
47.62
26
+11.5
17
D. Martin
46.51
16
-1
=18.5
A. Morris
45.45
15
-3.5
=18.5
A. Foster
45.45
11
-7.5
=21.5
T. Richardson
41.67
27
+5.5
=21.5
F. Jackson
41.67
24
+2.5
=21.5
B. Tate
41.67
22
+0.5
=21.5
S. Jackson
41.67
30
+8.5
=26
S. Vereen
40.00
25
-1
=26
S. Ridley
40.00
29
+3
=26
CJ. Spiller
40.00
21
-5
=26
C. Ivory
40.00
18
-8
=26
B. Sankey
40.00
23
-3
As you can see this follows the general fantasy football experts opinion, but there are a few differences that might help you get an advantage over your opponent, such as underrated players like Robinson, Gerhart and Brown I tend to use this to decide my lineup most weeks, so yeah, hope this can be of help to some of you :) EDIT: Added a Difference Column
Link to RBs post If anyone knows a good American odds-comparison site for OveUnder yardage totals please hook me up and I'd be glad to crunch the numbers for next week and maybe get an expected points model going! :) Basically I'll be ranking players at RB, WR and TE by the probability that they're going to get into the end zone at any time during the game. Only just joined fantasyfootball this year (Great work everybody by the way!) and was surprised I couldn't find an analysis like this on here, especially considering how highly weighted touchdowns are in most standard scoring fantasy football games. Also in most cases (obviously not all though) If a player is more likely to score a touchdown it's because he's going to be more offensively prevalent and therefore accumulating more carries and yards, not just touchdowns. I feel this method will be beneficial for a few reasons:
The sheer amount of research bookmakers do is being used as data by us
The sample of different bookmakers means more accurate odds
There's no bias from bookmakers unlike the "Fantasy experts" usually used for rankings
Probabilities will be worked out by Bookmakers odds, with the longest odds being accepted as closest possible estimate to actual probability of a player scoring a touchdown. (i.e if 4 different bookmakers probabilites for player A to score are1/2, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/2then we accept the probabilty of player A to score to be the lowest probability =1/4 or 25%) We're taking the longest odds as bookmakers are never going to offer longer odds than they consider to be the implied probability of the given event. Therefore the longest possible odds, given by a sample of bookmakers, on an event is likely to be very close to the actual probability of said event. Next the WRs (Players on Thursday night games are ignored) To understand the difference column:
+ numbers mean expected to be better than experts anticipate
0 means the same as experts anticipate
- numbers mean not expected to be as good as experts anticipate
WR TOUCHDOWN ODDS FOR WEEK 5 MATCHUPS
Rank
Player
TD Prob. (%)
Fantasy Pros Rank
Difference
Comment
1
A. Brown
62.5
1
0
2
C Johnson
61.72
5
+3
=3.5
J. Maclin
57.80
9
+5.5
=3.5
AJ. Green
57.80
6
+2.5
5
D. Bryant
57.14
3
-2
6
J Jones
55.55
2
-4
7
D. Thomas
54.64
4
-3
8
B. Marshall
51.28
7
-1
9
K. Allen
50.00
11
+2
10
V. Cruz
48.78
12
+2
11
R. Randle
47.61
33
+22
=12.5
S Smith
45.45
13
+0.5
=12.5
W. Welker
45.45
27
+14.5
=15.5
R White
44.44
17
+1.5
=15.5
R Wayne
44.44
26
+10.5
=15.5
TY. Hilton
44.44
24
+8.5
=15.5
M. Crabtree
44.44
20
+4.5
=19.5
M. Colston
43.47
31
+11.5
=19.5
V. Jackson
43.47
15
-4.5
=22.5
E. Royal
42.01
36
+13.5
=22.5
T. Williams
42.01
34
+11.5
=22.5
K. Benjamin
42.01
10
-12.5
=22.5
A. Jeffery
42.01
8
-14.5
25
G. Tate
41.66
25
0
=28
P. Harvin
40.00
16
-12
=28
J. Edelman
40.00
22
-6
=28
B. Cooks
40.00
23
-5
=28
E. Sanders
40.00
14
-14
=28
Michael Floyd
40.00
18
-10
31
T. Smith
38.46
40
9
=35.5
D. Hopkins
38.16
19
-16.5
=35.5
A. Johnson
38.16
21
-14.5
=35.5
L. Fitzgerald
38.16
30
-5.5
=35.5
A. Hurns
38.16
41
+5.5
=35.5
A Robinson
38.16
45
+9.5
=35.5
M. Wheaton
38.16
35
-0.5
=35.5
Malc. Floyd
38.16
43
+7.5
=35.5
D. Baldwin
38.16
54
+18.5
=41.5
K. Stills
35.71
57
+15.5
=41.5
R. Cooper
35.71
60
+18.5
=41.5
B. Quick
35.71
29
-12.5
=41.5
P. Garcon
35.71
28
-13.5
=45
D Hester
34.72
50
+5
=45
A. Boldin
34.72
44
-1
=45
E. Decker
34.72
39
-6
48
D. Bowe
34.48
46
-2
=51
S. Watkins
33.33
32
-19
=51
H Douglas
33.33
67
+16
=51
M. Austin
33.33
52
+1
=51
K. Wright
33.33
42
-9
=51
M. Sanu
33.33
47
-4
Points of Note: Desean Jackson doesn't even make it onto the list so things don't seem to bode well for him this weekend, although I guess that seems fairly obvious against the Seahawks. If there are any errors just say and I'll try and correct them.
Link to RBs post Link to WRs post If anyone knows a good American odds-comparison site for OveUnder yardage totals please hook me up and I'd be glad to crunch the numbers for next week and maybe get an expected points model going! :) Basically I'll be ranking players at RB, WR and TE by the probability that they're going to get into the end zone at any time during the game. Only just joined fantasyfootball this year (Great work everybody by the way!) and was surprised I couldn't find an analysis like this on here, especially considering how highly weighted touchdowns are in most standard scoring fantasy football games. Also in most cases (obviously not all though) If a player is more likely to score a touchdown it's because he's going to be more offensively prevalent and therefore accumulating more carries and yards, not just touchdowns. I feel this method will be beneficial for a few reasons:
The sheer amount of research bookmakers do is being used as data by us
The sample of different bookmakers means more accurate odds
There's no bias from bookmakers unlike the "Fantasy experts" usually used for rankings
Probabilities will be worked out by Bookmakers odds, with the longest odds being accepted as closest possible estimate to actual probability of a player scoring a touchdown. (i.e if 4 different bookmakers probabilites for player A to score are1/2, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/2then we accept the probabilty of player A to score to be the lowest probability =1/4 or 25%) We're taking the longest odds as bookmakers are never going to offer longer odds than they consider to be the implied probability of the given event. Therefore the longest possible odds, given by a sample of bookmakers, on an event is likely to be very close to the actual probability of said event. Next the TEs (Players on Thursday night games are ignored) To understand the difference column:
+ numbers mean expected to be better than experts anticipate
0 means the same as experts anticipate
- numbers mean not expected to be as good as experts anticipate
TE TOUCHDOWN ODDS FOR WEEK 5 MATCHUPS
Rank
Player
TD Prob. (%)
Fantasy Pros Rank
Difference
Comment
1
J. Graham
71.42
1
0
2
J. Thomas
54.05
2
0
3
R. Gronkowski
52.35
3
0
4
L. Donnell
51.28
5
+1
5
A. Gates
50
10
+5
6
M. Bennett
45.45
4
-2
7
D. Walker
44.44
7
0
8
V. Davis
43.47
14
+6
9
G. Olsen
40.00
6
-3
10
H. Miller
38.16
11
+1
=11.5
J. Witten
36.36
13
+1.5
=11.5
Z. Ertz
36.36
12
+0.5
=13
O. Daniels
35.71
16
+3
=14.5
D. Allen
33.33
18
+3.5
=14.5
C. Fleener
33.33
25
+10.5
=16.5
J. Cameron
32.25
8
-8.5
=16.5
T. Kelce
32.25
9
-7.5
=18.5
G. Graham
30.76
17
-1.5
=18.5
L. Wilson
30.76
30
+11.5
=21
D. Fells
28.57
48
+27
=21
C. Harbor
28.57
21
0
=21
J. Cook
28.57
19
-2
=23.5
J. Gresham
27.77
29
+5.5
=23.5
N. Paul
27.77
15
-8.5
=25
B. Pettigrew
26.66
25
0
If there are any errors just say and I'll try and correct them. :)
Sorry for the lack of posts last week! I was very busy, but back on it this weekend again :) Basically I'll be ranking players at RB, WR and TE by the probability that they're going to get into the end zone at any time during the game. I feel this method will be beneficial for a few reasons:
The sheer amount of research bookmakers do is being used as data by us
The sample of different bookmakers means more accurate odds
There's less bias from bookmakers than the "Fantasy experts" usually used for rankings
Probabilities will be worked out by Bookmakers odds, with the longest odds being accepted as closest possible estimate to actual probability of a player scoring a touchdown. (i.e if 4 different bookmakers probabilites for player A to score are1/2, 1/3, 1/4 and 1/2then we accept the probabilty of player A to score to be the lowest probability =1/4 or 25%) We're taking the longest odds as bookmakers are never going to offer longer odds than they consider to be the implied probability of the given event. Therefore the longest possible odds, given by a sample of bookmakers, on an event is likely to be very close to the actual probability of said event. We'll start with the RBs (Players on Thursday night games are ignored) To understand the difference column:
+ numbers mean expected to be better than experts anticipate
0 means the same as experts anticipate
- numbers mean not expected to be as good as experts anticipate
RB TOUCHDOWN ODDS FOR WEEK 5 MATCHUPS
Rank
Player
TD Prob. (%)
Fantasy Pros Rank
Difference
Comments
=1.5
D. Murray
62.50
1
-0.5
=1.5
M Lynch
62.50
4
+2.5
3
B. Tate
55.55
9
+6
4
A. Morris
54.64
11
+7
5
G. Bernard
54.05
7
+2
=7
M. Forte
54.05
2
-5
=7
J. Charles
54.05
5
-2
=7
A. Ellington
54.05
8
+1
=9.5
J. Forsett
52.35
12
+2.5
=9.5
L. Bell
52.35
6
-3.5
11
B. Oliver
51.28
10
-1
=13.5
A. Foster
50.00
3
-10.5
=13.5
E. Lacy
50.00
13
-0.5
=13.5
L. Miller
50.00
14
+0.5
=13.5
J. Bell
50.00
17
+3.5
16
F. Jackson
48.78
15
-1
=17.5
A. Williams
47.61
18
+0.5
=17.5
R. Hillman
47.61
21
+3.5
19
F. Gore
45.45
20
+1
=20.5
J. Stewart
44.44
28
+7.5
=20.5
A. Bradshaw
44.44
16
-4.5
22
T. Richardson
42.01
23
+1
23
S. Jackson
41.66
31
+8
=25
M. Ingram
40.00
32
+7
=25
D. McFadden
40.00
30
+5
=25
B. Sankey
40.00
24
-1
27
CJ Spiller
38.46
27
0
28
J. McKinnon
38.16
22
-6
=29.5
S. Johnson
37.03
35
+5.5
=29.5
T. Riddick
37.03
72
+42.5
31
B. Pierce
36.36
34
+3
32
K. Robinson
34.72
39
+7
=34
I. Crowell
33.33
26
-8
=34
M. Asiata
33.33
40
+6
=34
P. Thomas
33.33
29
-5
36
R. Bush
32.25
19
-17
=37.5
K. Davis
31.25
41
+3.5
=37.5
L. Blount
31.25
44
+6.5
39
B. Cunningham
30.76
42
+3
40
Z. Stacy
27.77
33
-7
Bush is surprisingly low on this list, think one bookmaker may have made a mistake with his odds as most have him at around 42-44% I'll let you judge for yourselves. Riddick looks like a good sleeper this week so could be a good pick-up if he's available and due to play.
Megathread: Long-Concealed Records Show President Trump’s Losses and Years of Tax Avoidance | Part II
President Donald Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in both 2016 and 2017, the New York Times reported Sunday, citing tax-return data. Megathread Part I
03-30 08:16 - 'If you are a betting man: [LINK] / As I understand it, if you put 100 pounds on leave you'll get 288 back, if you put 100 on stay you get only 144 back. Meaning the bookmakers, the people who've got no interest in this but mo...' by /u/cellularized removed from /r/europe within 0-2min
''' If you are a betting man: [LINK]1 As I understand it, if you put 100 pounds on leave you'll get 288 back, if you put 100 on stay you get only 144 back. Meaning the bookmakers, the people who've got no interest in this but money, consider it far more likely that Britain will stay. ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: cellularized 1: *w**oddsche*ker.*o**poli*i**/bri*ish-po*iti*s/eu*ref*r*ndum/*e*er*n*um**n-eu-memb*rship-resu*t Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
Megathread: President Donald Trump announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus | Part II
President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening. Megathread Part I
2021 Australian Open Men's & Women's Round 4 Writeup 🐢
TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today. Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time. Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets. Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one. In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2. Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case. Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3. Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3. I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow? Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match. Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2. Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2. Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to. Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets. In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2. Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3. Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past. Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time. The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit. Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3. Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent. That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon. Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5. Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now. FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up. Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3. McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3. Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective. I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4. Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round? Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).
(Small typo, it's obviously for CYL5.) Gonna be short and concise for once with this "essay"... except on the "bookmaker" part. Maybe some know what to do in CYL5, maybe some are hesitating on what to do, maybe there are newcomers who played FEH for less than a year... but no worries, this guide is there to give some quick pointers. For those who don't know what is CYL (Choose Your Legends), it's a yearly community poll allowing Fire Emblem fans to vote on their favorite characters of the franchise, with real consequences on FEH: the top 2 winners on the male & female side get a Brave alt (slated to be released around August, ~6 months after the poll which is more or less the timeframe for units to be produced in general). Now, that's the simplistic view on this event. To be more insightful, CYL has several marketing purposes that are more or less obvious:
It's a two-stage promotion campaign, with the first one being the community poll to create public engagement and maintain player retention. Community poll oblige, this can be an indicator to gauge the popularity of characters and influence **future banners' unit choices, be it New Heroes, seasonals/alts or even Resplendent skins.
The second layer is the CYL banner release around August, which has high player recruitment power (be it the free CYL unit pick or the sheer appeal of that yearly banner). IS usually pushes major advertisement campaigns online and offline at that time to attract new players (more on that below regarding 3H).
Now, also consider other remarks and changes that may matter:
With the Nintendo account log-in condition added in regards to botting concerns, we can expect two real consequences on CYL5. The first one is a possible lower amount of total votes (~1,1M on CYL4), which may potentially harm more popular characters (as casual votes may be weaker). The second one is better accuracy in overall votes, as FEH players' own votes would have higher weight than in past years... which may or may not matter considering that most unreleased characters have mediocre, if not low vote numbers (some hover around 1k, the rest is quite below).
CYL5 results may only have real influence on unit choices past the CYL5 banner, or more accurately after September-October. The reason is that units take more or less 6-8 months to be produced, so all lineups from now to September-October may be still influenced by CYL4 standings.
Speaking about New Heroes banners, those generally take some of the most popular picks and a few lesser popular ones based on CYL standings, especially if they have ties to the higher-ranked characters (Lena/Julian), are decently appreciated (Mustafa) and/or relevant in their game (Veld, despite 13 paltry votes made up by his "final boss" status). The more votes a character has, the better its release odds are, even for lesser popular ones (since IS won't dig too low, there are limits to that).
It's not a waste to vote on already-released characters (who tend to gather less support after one inclusion in FEH), as it can matter for alt/skin choices.
Overall votes for each game can matter for the likelihood of New Heroes (and even alt) lineups (along with banner performance). Thracia being dead last for 3 subsequent editions (second-to-last in CYL1, not that it's much better) doesn't help it, while the massive 3H backing (~40% of overall votes) may be announcing a steady wave of New Heroes and alt releases this year. Won't make detailed guesses as I don't expect a major shake-up in overall votes for most games.
Regarding the fact that the CYL banner release is a player recruitment phase, it can be assumed that a huge amount of the casual fanbase was exposed to 3H, if not the FE franchise for the first time. As such, the unit design choices (promoted forms) may've been deliberate to cater to those casuals/newcomers, so that they'd play FEH and grab a popular 3H character in a familiar outfit. Whether this, recency bias decay and the required log-in to vote would have consequences on CYL5 standings is uncertain at this point.
Intermediate rankings are usually published around Day 3 or 4, and they can change the tide of end results. See Veronica who managed to win in CYL2, or Eliwood in CYL3. It's highly probable that mid-term standings may have big influence this time, given tough competition and possible rally forces (Chrom/Robin, if not an outsider on the male side... see below for details).
Now, what are the main contenders for the winning spots, and which threats should be taken into account? Here's a "bookmaker" guide that's mostly up to date (with a day one appendix due to an X factor from 3H).
Male Bracket
Marth
Status & goal: Favorite, finally being within Top 2 (if not #1) Strengths: Fame (including Smash), old-school status (first Lord) & huge pity factor due to losing three times by a small margin (meaning that he did traditionally well on past years). Can rally wide support, moreso than Chrom/MRobin who are a bit weaker and overlapping a lot with Marth's backing (more historical Smash figure, older protagonist, higher pity factor). Less alt-sensitive due to the above factors (his existing alts won't really harm his performance). Also add weaker competition on the male side (3H contenders may lose in traction as Felix got an alt and Ashe doesn't have the same traction, Chrom/MRobin are divided). Weaknesses: Voter complacency, mostly. But proper support and past failures may offset that. Possible strategy: Voting for him from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, in case of an upset. Interim Results: On par with predictions, but slightly at risk of being overthrown by Gatekeeper for #1, and maybe Chrom for #2. Complacency should be avoided.
Chrom/MRobin
Status & goal: Runner-ups, at least one of them within Top 2 (both being ideal for fans, but hard to expect) Strengths: Did very well over the past CYL editions, and with weaker competition, one of them could potentially grab a winning slot with proper support. MRobin being perceived as neglected alt-wise (no Legendary and/or Levin Sword, FGrima getting an alt but not the male variant) could generate pity support. But Chrom remains a choice with higher early expressed support despite this. Weaknesses: Divided support due to being main protagonists from the same game and requiring casual support (weakened due to residual 3H recency bias). Marth also weakening their rallying potential due to some profile overlap. Legendary Chrom being relatively recent and frequently fought in PvP. May both risk losing at the benefit of an outsider if too divided and have higher chances in CYL6. Possible strategy: Ideally choosing early on to support one of the two, but coordination will likely happen and be forced on mid-term standings. Interim Results: Called it, their divided support is leaving room for an outsider (namely Gatekeeper) and Chrom would be benefitting from some extra rally support. But it's unsure whether it'd be enough.
Male Byleth
Status & goal: Outsider, ranking as decently as possible (Top 50 or above) Strengths: Lead of the latest game, no alt at this point (a potential Valentine alt would happen after CYL5 voting anyway), possible vote trickling from CYL4 winners... Weaknesses: ... but those votes may go more toward the much more popular FByleth, or even other popular students (like Ashe). May be a MCorrin-like and settle for Top 50. Possible strategy: Voting for him from day one, maintaining support if within Top 20 if not Top 10 (not so likely), or considering supporting other 3H characters otherwise. Interim Results: Much better than expected, but whether he could maintain that momentum in future editions is very uncertain (could still end up as a slightly higher-ranked MCorrin).
Felix/Ashe
Status & goal: Outsiders, ranking as high as possible (Top 20 being realistic) Strengths: 3H recency bias if maintained from CYL4, Ashe not being released in FEH + Dimitri votes may be beneficial for him, especially with divided challengers. Weaknesses: Felix got a Christmas alt and will lose clutch support that could've granted a win, Ashe doesn't have the same traction. Possible decay in 3H recency bias, but hard to evaluate that. Possible strategy: Supporting from day one, rallying more support on mid-terms if any of them is in a very good position (within Top 10). May still support them otherwise, or other popular 3H characters. Side note on other 3H male students: Sylvain should drop a bit but still remain decently ranked (Top 20-40). Linhardt doesn't have the same rallying potential as Felix/Ashe but may rise noticeably. For Gatekeeper and Dedue, see below since they are odd cases. Interim Results: Felix & Ashe maintained Top 10 presence but are out of contention for Top 2 (not that it's a major issue for their fans). Same goes for Sylvain and Linhardt within Top 20. Yuri did a solid performance by nabbing Top 10, although being tied to a standalone faction may not really change how he'd be released (dedicated faction banner similarly to the Church one... and it might be one of the two New Heroes lineups for this year).
Seliph/Sigurd
Status & goal: Out of contention, not losing too much backing (Top 50 or above) Strengths: Cult following from Genealogy fans, Sigurd was traditionally more popular except when his son benefitted from pity support. Weaknesses: Both got alts in 2020 and may follow Leif's path by losing a decent chunk of their votes (moreso Seliph, Sigurd may not drop as much). Marth would siphon a good part of old-school support. A major fear would be Reinhardt (also out of the picture) ranking higher than all Jugdral lords. Possible strategy: Diehard support until consumed by the blaze. Interim Results: Held their ground better than expected, still out of contention but they avoided Leif's fate at the very least (who's ranked below Reinhardt).
Soren
Status & goal: Out of contention, maintaining solid standings (Top 30 or above) Strengths: Remains solidly ranked over the last 4 editions, not to the extent of Chrom/MRobin but enough to be a potential winning contender in the future... especially if Tellius remakes are next. Weaknesses: Notable competition is still on the table, more likely to make a stronger impact in CYL6/CYL7, and Tellius remakes are quite necessary for that. Possible strategy: Diehard support that can still matter for alts (notably a Legendary variant). Interim Results: Very good performance, that'll help him for future CYL editions.
Gatekeeper
Status & goal: Outsider (?), ranking as high as possible (Top 50 being non-ironically a realistic bar, can even shoot above Top 20 with major support) Strengths: Last minute outsider boasting high appreciation from 3H players and being more than a meme... even if that can grant him an unpredictable amount of votes. The possibility of a playable NPC could be a contributing factor even for a GHB tie-in with the CYL5 lineup if not a win (see Veronica). Clearly the X factor of CYL5. Weaknesses: Being a last minute addition may limit his backing from the casual audience. Unless he ends up within Top 10 or even Top 20 in mid-terms, he's not necessarily a major threat for Top 2. Possible strategy: Meme support starting from day one, may get even more rallying power depending on mid-term standings. Realistic goal being a CYL5 GHB tie-in. Interim Results: So he is a major threat then. Can only get more support at this point, at the expense of Chrom due to his own rallying issues.
Dedue
Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (above Top 50) Strengths: Could benefit from a good part of Dimitri and pity support due to being the only missing retainer. Was #52 overall last year, and since the goal is simply to make him released asap, he only needs a decent amount of raw votes to push him higher within unreleased 3H characters. Weaknesses: Subject to some relative indifference from IS and part of the playerbase, so it's not sure he'd manage to do substantially better. Gatekeeper being votable may hinder his support potential, same goes for already-released and/or more popular characters for release or an alt. Possible strategy: Diehard fans may support him until the end, but he may suffer a bit at mid-terms, especially if another popular 3H male character is within Top 20 and may have a shot to pull off a surprising feat. Interim Results: Much better than expected thanks to pity support working out... but beware, it's a double-edged sword, especially if IS and a good part of the fanbase remains indifferent to him (see Legendary Seliph as a case example)
Female Bracket
Eirika
Status & goal: Favorite, finally being within Top 2 Strengths: Female counterpart to Marth, on top of being the remaining old-school Lord from that side of CYL. Has the fame & pity factor for high potential support, and FByleth may eventually hinder Marianne's backing to secure at least a winning spot. Weaknesses: Voter complacency, on top of FByleth and Marianne's competition with the former being a serious candiate for #1. But proper support and past failures may offset that. Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, in case of an upset. Interim Results: Slightly better than expected and risks of being overthrown are slim, but complacency may still put a wrench so her fans are likely maintaining pressure.
Female Byleth
Status & goal: Favorite, getting in Top 2 (if not #1) Strengths: Has the wide popularity & horny factor offsetting her relatively recent alt, can immensely benefit from CYL4 winners' votes (most of Edelgard/Dimitri for pairing reasons, some of Claude and a bit of Lysithea). Weaknesses: If she's close to Eirika in raw votes at mid-terms, that could spur some rallying in favor of the latter, similarly to Micaiah vs Camilla in CYL3. Other than that though... Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, which may completely secure a win no matter what similarly to CYL4. Interim Results: On par with predictions, seems like vote dilution weakened a bit her rallying potential due to all the popular 3H females. But she still has an edge for winning spots.
Marianne
Status & goal: Runner-up, potentially getting in Top 2 (maybe with FByleth) Strengths: Very popular, still unreleased in FEH and could pull off Lysithea's performance. A good part of Claude and Lysithea votes from CYL4 could be enough in terms of raw numbers to push her in Top 2. If FByleth is #1 at mid-terms and Eirika is #2, supporters of the former may flock toward Marianne. Weaknesses: FByleth herself. Both'd each need a huge amount of extra votes... which is possible, but not certain. Moreover, and we could see that in the Harmony vs Changing Winds poll, it's totally possible that FByleth siphons a huge amount of CYL4 votes, leaving fewer for other characters and not being enough for Marianne. Possible strategy: Voting for her from day one in order to have the highest vote amount possible at mid-terms, which can eventually help her to gather more support. Interim Results: On par with pragmatic reserves, overthrowing Byleth AND Eirika will be very tough due to support dilution (Bernadetta, Hilda, Dorothea...).
FEH OCs
Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (variable) Strengths: Unpredictable and non-negligible outsiders, as we could see with Lif and Plumeria. Female OCs tend to do very well, so Reginn could settle for a decent place within Top 40... but Henriette may actually be higher and be a Plumeria-lite if MILF motivations were to matter (Top 20-30 wouldn't be too shocking). The fact that votes may be more reflective of FEH players may contribute to OCs. Weaknesses: Unpredictable by nature and atm, remaining competition makes a brand-new OC win unlikely. Possible strategy: Support mostly coming from FEH players, hard to tell how it'd go but Henriette is the one to potentially watch out after, especially if appearing on mid-term standings. Side note on other male OCs: Doubtful that Fafnir and Otr would do well (can still end within Top 50-100), same goes for Freyr who already had middling standings. Gustav could actually do relatively better than them now that he's votable (Top 30-50). Interim Results: Henriette did very well and is indeed a Plumeria-lite by almost getting into Top 10 (not unreachable). Plumeria still holds well all things considered, while all Book V OCs are nowhere to be seen.
Bernadetta/Dorothea/Hilda/Ingrid/Rhea
Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (Top 20-40 or above) Strengths: Still very popular 3H characters who may retain most of their backing despite recent releases. Weaknesses: First 3 have recentish alts, so their winning odds are near zero. In Rhea's case, she doesn't seem to have high traction potential. Possible strategy: Diehard support that may go to potential winners depending on mid-term standings. Side note on other female students: Most of them are expected to be released (be it in their pre-TS forms or as alts), and the lesser popular ones (Leonie). Interim Results: Bernadetta, Dorothea, Hilda, Ingrid and Rhea all did well by being within Top 20. No winning odds, but still a solid result nonetheless for their fans.
Female Corrin/Female Robin/Tharja/Azura
Status & goal: Out of contention, ranking as high as possible (Top 20-40 or above) Strengths: Similar to the above 3H cases, they are still popular so at best they can still remain high in CYL rankings, even if they aren't going to win. That can still matter for alts. Weaknesses: FCorrin had her Legendary alt recently, FRobin doesn't have the same traction as her male counterpart (plus a Halloween Grima alt for what it's worth), Tharja just got an alt to cut any emergent traction. Overall, those characters lost some traction and may not fully recover or improve it for now. Possible strategy: Diehard support until the end, but may be split depending on mid-terms. Side note on Anna/Jill: They're also out of contention but unlike the above cases, their winning odds in the future are less certain. Interim Results: Same as above, no winning odds but still within Top 10 which is very good. Anna and Jill seemingly dropped below Top 20. If I made mistakes, feel free to correct me. [Edit: Layout was a bit messed up, corrected that quickly.)
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